Before we look at this year's tale of two schedules, let's look back to last year. The 10-6 AFC West Champion Chiefs came out of the cellar much to the chagrin of the much-improved Raiders and heavily-favored Chargers. They owe part of their success - maybe even a large part - to the easiest schedule in the NFL. Unfortunately, easy regular season schedules don't usually equate to post-season success. Here's how they faired against winning and losing teams.
Winning, Losing or .500 | Record | Opponents |
Over .500 | 1-2 | SD (x 2), Ind |
Exactly .500 | 1-2 | Oak (x 2), Jax |
Under .500 | 8-2 | Den (x 2), Cle, SF, Hou, Buf, Ari, Sea, STL, Ten |
In fairness to the Chiefs, good teams take care of business against bad teams. Questionable officiating in the Houston game and one legitamately shitty game against Denver were the only blemishes against the league's losers. Also, Seattle made the playoffs and won, while Cleveland was much better than their record (11 games against teams .500 and above). So we'll give KC a little bit of a break, but how does 2011 look for the Chiefs?
2011 Season - Part I: And they're off!
Schedule, Weeks 1-10
WK | DATE | Opponent |
1 | Sep 11th | vs Buffalo |
2 | Sep 18th | at Detroit |
3 | Sep 25th | at San Diego |
4 | Oct 2nd | vs Minnesota |
5 | Oct 9th | at Indianapolis |
6 | Oct 14th | Bye |
7 | Oct 23rd | at Oakland |
8 | Oct 31st * | vs San Diego |
9 | Nov 6th | vs Miami |
10 | Nov 13th | vs Denver |
This is incredibly similar to the 2010 schedule on a smaller scale. They still have only three games against winning teams. In fact, it's the exact same three games (Indy, San Diego x 2). There's one game against .500 Oakland, who seems to have gone backwards in the off-season. That leaves five games against sub-.500 teams.
Buffalo, Minnesota, and Denver look pretty ugly coming into the year, and they're coming to Arrowhead to make things worse. Miami should be improved defensively, but they haven't solved the quarterback situation, while adding question marks at running back (Reggie Bush plus rookie Daniel Thomas?). Detroit seems to have made up the most ground out of these losing teams from last year, and they will be a tougher game for the Chiefs than the Raiders match up. Prediction: 5-1 against teams that were .500 or worse.
The 2010 Chargers were among the greatest statistical anomolies of all time. They were just the 5th team in the Super Bowl era to finish 1st in offense and defense in the same season. The other teams:
1972 Miami Dolphins - 14-0 Record (Won Super Bowl)
1973 Los Angelos Rams - 12-2 Record (lost in Playoffs)
1977 Dallas Cowboys - 12-2 Record (Won Super Bowl)
1987 San Fran 49ers - 13-2 Record (lost in Playoffs)
Let's tally that up. 51-6 regular season record, four for four on playoff appearances, and two Super Bowl victories. All the Chargers did was lose seven games and miss the playoffs. Yikes. It's safe to say that the Chargers took a few bad bounces to go with their terrible special teams play. Through 11 games last year, they were 6-5, with all five losses coming from eight points or less. Bottom line, the Chargers will be better this year. Prediction: Kansas City loses at San Diego in Week 3, but beats Indy in Week 5 (1-1).
You may notice that we skipped the October 31st Monday Night Match Up when San Diego travels to Kansas City for a Week 8 show down. We'll come back to this game, but suffice it to say that Kansas City's playoff hopes might very well hinge on this game. Now we just predicted that Kansas City would go 6-2 in their other eight games the first part of the season. So why is this a make or break game?
2011 Season - Part II: The Gauntlet
Schedule, Weeks 11-17
WK | DATE | Opponent |
11 | Nov 21st* | at New England |
12 | Nov 27th | vs Pittsburgh |
13 | Dec 4th | at Chicago |
14 | Dec 11th | at NY Jets |
15 | Dec 18th | vs Green Bay |
16 | Dec 24th | vs Oakland |
17 | Jan 1st | at Denver |
* Monday Night
Oh . . . my . . . God. In a 28 day period from November 21st through December 18th, they play all four Championship Game participants plus a pesky little team called the Patriots. ESPN has them ranked 2nd (NE), 5th (Pit), 13th (Chi), 7th (NYJ), and 1st (GB), respectively. If anything, I think the Steelers and Jets may be ranked too low. This five game run has the potential to destroy the Chiefs' season. That's why coming into Foxboro on November 21st, it is critical that Kansas City have a little swagger, and a record to back it up.
Clearly, the most winnable game is Chicago, who have had a shaky off-season. It's not the Bears themselves that make this a tough matchup - it's playing in Chicago in December coming off two straight against the Pats and Steelers. The Bears have also faired better against run-heavy teams the last few years, so the Chiefs are not exactly a nightmare matchup.
The New York Jets and Green Bay Packers will likely be vying for Division and Conference positioning. Let's face it, the Chiefs did well last year, but they do not have "big-game" pedigree. This stretch is brutal, and while the Chiefs do not necessarily have the toughest schedule overall, this is definitely the worst five-game run that anyone will face. By far. Prediction: 1-4 during this murderer's row.
The last two games (home vs Oakland and at Denver) are obviously both very winnable. Let's look at where they'll be coming into those games:
Schedule Part I (not including San Diego's MNF): 6-2
Schedule Part II: 1-4
Total: 7-6
That Monday Night game becomes even more important in this light. The difference between 8-6 and 7-7 going into the final two games is the difference between controlling their own destiny, and praying for a 5-game tie-breaker scenario to work out in their favor. The assumptions that led to this point are not crazy:
1. Chiefs win 5 of 6 against losing teams
2. Chiefs win 1 of 2 road games against Colts and Chargers
3. Chiefs win 1 of 5 during brutal late season schedule including three on the road and both Super Bowl participants at Arrowhead
As if a Chiefs-Chargers game needed any more hype, Halloween Night will probably determine the fate of the AFC West. Prediction: Chiefs win MNF, sweep last two games of the year, finish 10-6.
Is it anti-climatic to predict a 10-6 finish for a second year in a row? Only if this wasn't a tale of two very different schedules.
After watching that preseason game, the Chiefs will be lucky to beat the Bills.
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