This year is particularly fascinating in this respect for four reasons:
1. While other quarterbacks have received hype, no one has been universally annointed as NFL-ready franchise savior to this degree since Peyton Manning wore Volunteer Orange.
2. There are a considerable number of teams who have quarterback situations that are bad enough to draft Luck over their existing stable - even if they drafted a QB in the first round last year.
3. Fan bases of several teams have already thrown in the towel after just three weeks. Chiefs and Colts fan gave up after one game.
There's no point in fighting it. Embrace the race for next best thing. Let's look forward to the biggest games remaining this season. Ravens vs Steelers on November 6th? Heck, no! That game might determine the AFC North. I'm talking about the epic battles that will shape the NFL for the next 10 years. The games that promise to invoke nausea as you watch the pure lack of skill. Games that would be second fiddle to the SEC if they were played on Saturdays. Games you celebrate as your own team allows in the game winning touchdown. But before we look at the games, let's look at the contenduhs. Futility Rating is how bad the team is (on a scale of 1-100). QB Desperation is how bad the quarterback situation is (also 1-100).
Miami Dolphins | |
| Last in AFC East | |
| Record | 0-3 |
| Futility | 75% |
QB Desperation | 80% |
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| The AFC East will not be a fun place for the phins this year. |
Eyebrows were raised across the country as the Dolphins attempted to rectify their problems by replacing Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams with Reggie Bush. Haven't they learned their lesson about getting running backs from the Saints?
In fairness to Chad Henne, he hasn't played terrible . . . but he's not a guy who's going to win them games. He's a game manager at best. You know you have problems when you're 0-3 and still better than expected.
| Minnesota Vikings | |
| Last in NFC North | |
| Record | 0-3 |
| Futility | 80% |
| QB Desperation | 45% |
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| Wasn't the' party boat before his time? |
The Vikings used a first-round pick on Christian Ponder, who hasn't had a chance to prove himself, so the Vikings level of desperation is clearly lower than some on this list. McNabb is not exactly a scrub himself, but he's reached the point where the best we can expect is an occasional surprise performance. In a division with Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford commanding football games, the talent gap is distinct. Ponder will soon join Rex Grossman and Kevin Kolb on the list of quarterbacks who have replaced McNabb in the last 24 months.
The Vikings' window of success isn't closing - it's already closed. The defense is getting old, and while the same could be said of the Ravens and Steelers, the Vikings at their peak were nowhere near their AFC North counterparts. Jared Allen is 29, Winfield is 34, Kevin Williams, E.J. Henderson, and Pro-Bowler Steve Hutchinson are 31. Adrian Peterson certainly appears to be going strong at 26, but this team has rebuild written all over it.
| Indianapolis Colts | |
| Last in AFC South | |
| Record | 0-3 |
| Futility | 95% |
| QB Desperation | 50%* |
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| You'll never be Sorgi! Do you hear me? Never! |
If the Colts land the top spot they would have to draft Luck. Trading the pick only makes sense if they land an incredible impact player. The irony is that this may result in an Aaron Rodgers-long waiting period before Luck sees the light of day. Manning is about 4 1/2 (good) years away from owning all of the major passing records. His preparation is incredible as is his desire to win and succeed. Barring the very realistic possibility of injuries derailing his march to the top, this one could take awhile.
| Cincinnati Bengals | |
| Last in AFC North | |
| Record | 1-2 |
| Futility | 80% |
| QB Desperation | 80% |
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| Take a good look, because you'll never see this one again. |
Dalton successfully and artificially raised hope in Cincinnati with decent performances against bottom-feeders Cleveland and Denver. He quickly brought everyone back to reality against the 49ers, who are playing themselves out of a Harbaugh-Luck reunion. San Fran probably couldn't lose enough games in the NFC West even if they wanted to. The Bengals, on the other hand, have plenty of losses coming up, including two apiece against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
To those who want to give Dalton a chance, the question is not, "Would you replace Dalton with Luck today?" It's, "Would you replace Dalton with Luck after the Bengals go 2-14 and have the #1 Pick?" The answer to the first one is murky, but the second is obvious. The Carolina Panthers kicked Clausen to the curb after 10 starts because they landed the number one pick.
| Kansas City Chiefs | |
| Last in AFC West | |
| Record | 0-3 |
| Futility | 97% |
| QB Desperation | 75% |
If you had to name one Chief who you didn't want to be injured for the year, it would probably be Jamal Charles. Second might be Eric Berry. Brandon Flowers is high on the list. With Charles and Berry out for the year, and Flowers out for a few weeks, the Chiefs outlook is bleak to say the least. If they continue at this pace, Hali, Dustin Johnson, and Dwayne Bowe will all be hurt before the bye week. With an absolutely brutal schedule starting on Halloween night (vs SD, at NE, vs Pit, at Chi, at NYJ, vs GB), it's safe to say that the Chiefs are the front runners in the race for the chase for last place.
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| How is he not the one that's hurt? |
Kansas City radio-man Nick Wright has already instituted the "Suck for Luck" campaign (actually after week 1). For casual fans who don't understand why Kansas City fans think Cassel is terrible despite a pro-bowl nod last year . . . well, you need to watch a game. Last season's aberration was a monument to over-achievement, punctuated by dropped interceptions, lucky bounces, and tremendous running by Jamal Charles. Even as it was happening, Chiefs fans wondered when the bottom would drop out. The answer? January 2nd 2011. Here's their last five games:
| Date | Opp. | Result | Cassel Yards |
| 2-Jan | Oak | L 31-10 | 115 |
| 9-Jan | Bal | L 30-7 | 70 |
| 11-Sep | Buf | L 41-7 | 119 |
| 18-Sep | Det | L 48-3 | 133 |
| 25-Sep | SD | L 20-17 | 176 |
| Total | 0-5 | 170-44 | 613 |
| Denver Broncos | |
| 3rd in AFC West | |
| Record | 1-2 |
| Futility | 80% |
| QB Desperation | 70% |
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| Best way to solve the Orton-Tebow controversy? Start Quinn and draft Luck. |
The potential solutions to the quarterback controversy going into the season. 1. Start Orton and trade Tebow. 2. Trade Orton and start Quinn. 3. Trade Orton and start Tebow. 4. Keep everyone and make Denver fans miserable. As I laid out here, this mess of a situation is ironically great for Tebow, whose value remains high by staying on the sidelines while people wonder "what if?"
Orton, who sports pundits universally agree is the best Broncos quarterback, ranks 24th in Passer Rating, 22nd in Yards, and 25th in Completion Percentage (57%, behind Tavaris, Dalton, Cassel, and McNabb, but ahead of Henne and K. Collins). Broncos fans are calling for the Tebow. Hard to tell if they want him to win, or if it's a ploy to get Luck. We know what Elway thinks . . .
| Seattle Seahawks | |
| 3rd in NFC West | |
| Record | 1-2 |
| Futility | 99% |
| QB Desperation | 99% |
I was at a loss for words following the Seahawks victory over the Cardinals. And not just because I had money riding. Look, I understand you shouldn't bet on Arizona, but it was more a bet against the 'hawks, who I was confident would go 0-16. The NFC West appears to be terrible again this year, so purely based on scheduling differences, Seattle will have a slightly more difficult time losing the most games.
Maybe Pete Carroll signed a deal with the devil, or maybe he's a good coach. I'm leaning towards the former. Either way, Seattle's finest could move into a tie for first with a win (and a SF loss), while the pre-season favorite Rams could end up three games out of first with a loss (and a SF win). I'm hoping Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big 12 for the NFC West to improve the level of play.Honorable mentions:
St. Louis - their record's bad, but they've played tough competition, and they're not giving up on Bradford yet.
Jacksonville - the AFC South is down this year, and Jacksonville almost snuck into playoff contention last year.
Carolina - Read it here first. Cam Newton is going to ruin someone's playoff run this year. And I do mean other than just the Panthers. From November 20th to the end of the year, they play Detroit, Tampa (twice), Atlanta, Houston, and New Orleans. One of these teams will miss the playoffs thanks to Killer Cam.
#6 Minnesota at Kansas City, October 2nd
This early season match up will guarantee that one of these teams emerges from the first quarter of the season winless. A Minnesota loss may very well spur the promotion of Ponder to starting quarterback, which should have major implications on their ability win the race for Luck.
Kansas City, on the other hand, needs a big loss here because they have another epic match up in Week 5. Picking up a pair of wins this early in the year could do serious damage to their campaign, including artificially giving players a sense of pride and/or hope. Injuries should give Kansas City the advantage here, with Minnesota still fielding most of their good players.
Prediction: Jared Allen injures someone of the Chiefs, Adrian Peterson reminds everyone why he's the man, Vikings win by 14. MIN 24, KC 10.
#5 Cincinnati at Indianapolis, October 16th
Both of these teams have more difficult schedules as the season moves along, so picking up early losses is key finish in the cellar. With Manning presumably out for the season and Collins also ailing, Colts fans will likely see Curtis Painter or, best-case scenario, Dan Orlovsky. Danny O played 10 games during the 2008 Lions memorable 0-16 run, leading to #1 overall pick Matt Stafford. Orlovsky knows how to lose games.
On the other side of the ball, Marvin Lewis just passed Gary Kubiak and Chan Gailey for the worst record by an active coach with 50+ games (46.95%, 46.99%, and 47.17% respectively). This man finds ways to lose. If their recent performance in Pittsburgh is any indication, Indy's pass rush is their lone strong suit, which created problems for Big Ben, so Dalton should beware.
Prediction: Upset alert! Indy wins a defensive struggle, punctuated by eight combined turnovers. IND 16, CIN 13.
#4 Miami at Kansas City, November 6th
Miami plays a tough schedule leading into this Week 9 game, with a bye mixed in. The 'phins could easy be sitting at 1-6 or 0-7 coming into this game. Things don't get any easier for them the rest of the way, as they play NFC and AFC East in seven of their final eight. This matchup could prove pivotal in breaking a tie between the worst of the worst on this list, as the Dolphins have the toughest schedule of any of them.
The Chiefs are fortunate to have this game at home on short rest following (probably) a Monday Night beatdown at the hands of the Chargers. However, early season matchups with Minnesota and Indy could put KC behind in the "Suck for Luck" campaign. Chiefs fans will be looking for a major injuries to key players leading up to this showdown.
Prediction: Miami puts it all together early, Chiefs mount a second half comeback, but come up short. MIA 30, KC 21.
#3 Seattle at Cincinnati, October 30th
The Seahawks have already played division foes San Francisco and Arizona in the first three weeks, and won't meet again until the final two weeks of the season. In the middle is a pretty tough schedule with Cincinnati as one of the lone lowlights. Aside from two winnable games against the Rams, Seattle will almost definitely be underdogs in every other game in the middle of their schedule. How long will they stick with Tavaris, who ranks 27th in Passer Rating and Total Yards, as well as 30th in Yards/Attempt? Playing in the worst division in sports will probably buy him some time.
The Bengals get this game coming off a bye, but leading into Smashmouth Alley (at Ten, vs Pit, at Bal, vs Cle, at Pit). A win here likely will remove them from the Luck Sweepstakes, so losing is critical. Their morale could be low enough coming off a waxing in Seattle to carry them through the gauntlet.
Prediction: Seattle plays terribly the entire game, and wins in a 4th Quarter flurry. SEA 24, CIN 22
#2 Kansas City at Denver, January 1st, 2012
This game carries more weight because these two rivals will be playing for nothing but pride in this New Years Day match up. Look for Ricky Stanzi and Tim Tebow to put on a show, with Jackie Battle and Lance Ball eating up big yardage. This stinkbomb won't even be worth emerging from your New Year's Eve hangover to watch. But it might impact one of these teams over the next ten years. This is not the best matchup of terrible teams, but it's certainly the last one. Bad blood from last year (running up the score + the Haley point) and a fight to stay out of the AFC West cellar are additional subplots. If the NFL is smart, they'll make this the flex game.
Prediction: Kansas City plays their best game when they need it the least. KC 37, DEN 14
#1 Kansas City at Indianapolis, October 9th
Pull out your straws because this is going to be a suckfest. The AFC's two worst defenses as well as two of the three worst offenses take the field in this battle between two defending divisional champs. Collins (30th in passer rating) and Cassel (31st) may or may not be starting at that point. Reggie Wayne (31st in receiving yards) and Dwayne Bowe (38th) may or may not have demanded trades.
This is a Week 5 matchup, so of course a lot could change. But the loser, er winner, of this slap fight will be in the driver seat of the Andy Luck-mobile. A tie-breaker is determined by comparing strength of schedule - with the better SOS drafting first. This lends itself to the Chiefs whose schedule has been marginally tougher through three games (their opponents are 26-22), but also looks stronger as the season progresses.
Prediction: Succop misses a potential game-tying 23-yard field goal as time expires, Colts get lucky. Chiefs get Luck. IND 24, KC 21
You've got the dates! Forget the Packers. Get off the Bills and Lions band-wagons. No one cares about the NFC East. Worrying about this year's Super Bowl is lame. Super Bowl XLIX is where it's at.
This early season match up will guarantee that one of these teams emerges from the first quarter of the season winless. A Minnesota loss may very well spur the promotion of Ponder to starting quarterback, which should have major implications on their ability win the race for Luck.
Kansas City, on the other hand, needs a big loss here because they have another epic match up in Week 5. Picking up a pair of wins this early in the year could do serious damage to their campaign, including artificially giving players a sense of pride and/or hope. Injuries should give Kansas City the advantage here, with Minnesota still fielding most of their good players.
Prediction: Jared Allen injures someone of the Chiefs, Adrian Peterson reminds everyone why he's the man, Vikings win by 14. MIN 24, KC 10.
#5 Cincinnati at Indianapolis, October 16th
Both of these teams have more difficult schedules as the season moves along, so picking up early losses is key finish in the cellar. With Manning presumably out for the season and Collins also ailing, Colts fans will likely see Curtis Painter or, best-case scenario, Dan Orlovsky. Danny O played 10 games during the 2008 Lions memorable 0-16 run, leading to #1 overall pick Matt Stafford. Orlovsky knows how to lose games.
On the other side of the ball, Marvin Lewis just passed Gary Kubiak and Chan Gailey for the worst record by an active coach with 50+ games (46.95%, 46.99%, and 47.17% respectively). This man finds ways to lose. If their recent performance in Pittsburgh is any indication, Indy's pass rush is their lone strong suit, which created problems for Big Ben, so Dalton should beware.
Prediction: Upset alert! Indy wins a defensive struggle, punctuated by eight combined turnovers. IND 16, CIN 13.
#4 Miami at Kansas City, November 6th
Miami plays a tough schedule leading into this Week 9 game, with a bye mixed in. The 'phins could easy be sitting at 1-6 or 0-7 coming into this game. Things don't get any easier for them the rest of the way, as they play NFC and AFC East in seven of their final eight. This matchup could prove pivotal in breaking a tie between the worst of the worst on this list, as the Dolphins have the toughest schedule of any of them.
The Chiefs are fortunate to have this game at home on short rest following (probably) a Monday Night beatdown at the hands of the Chargers. However, early season matchups with Minnesota and Indy could put KC behind in the "Suck for Luck" campaign. Chiefs fans will be looking for a major injuries to key players leading up to this showdown.
Prediction: Miami puts it all together early, Chiefs mount a second half comeback, but come up short. MIA 30, KC 21.
#3 Seattle at Cincinnati, October 30th
The Seahawks have already played division foes San Francisco and Arizona in the first three weeks, and won't meet again until the final two weeks of the season. In the middle is a pretty tough schedule with Cincinnati as one of the lone lowlights. Aside from two winnable games against the Rams, Seattle will almost definitely be underdogs in every other game in the middle of their schedule. How long will they stick with Tavaris, who ranks 27th in Passer Rating and Total Yards, as well as 30th in Yards/Attempt? Playing in the worst division in sports will probably buy him some time.
The Bengals get this game coming off a bye, but leading into Smashmouth Alley (at Ten, vs Pit, at Bal, vs Cle, at Pit). A win here likely will remove them from the Luck Sweepstakes, so losing is critical. Their morale could be low enough coming off a waxing in Seattle to carry them through the gauntlet.
Prediction: Seattle plays terribly the entire game, and wins in a 4th Quarter flurry. SEA 24, CIN 22
#2 Kansas City at Denver, January 1st, 2012
This game carries more weight because these two rivals will be playing for nothing but pride in this New Years Day match up. Look for Ricky Stanzi and Tim Tebow to put on a show, with Jackie Battle and Lance Ball eating up big yardage. This stinkbomb won't even be worth emerging from your New Year's Eve hangover to watch. But it might impact one of these teams over the next ten years. This is not the best matchup of terrible teams, but it's certainly the last one. Bad blood from last year (running up the score + the Haley point) and a fight to stay out of the AFC West cellar are additional subplots. If the NFL is smart, they'll make this the flex game.
Prediction: Kansas City plays their best game when they need it the least. KC 37, DEN 14
#1 Kansas City at Indianapolis, October 9th
Pull out your straws because this is going to be a suckfest. The AFC's two worst defenses as well as two of the three worst offenses take the field in this battle between two defending divisional champs. Collins (30th in passer rating) and Cassel (31st) may or may not be starting at that point. Reggie Wayne (31st in receiving yards) and Dwayne Bowe (38th) may or may not have demanded trades.
This is a Week 5 matchup, so of course a lot could change. But the loser, er winner, of this slap fight will be in the driver seat of the Andy Luck-mobile. A tie-breaker is determined by comparing strength of schedule - with the better SOS drafting first. This lends itself to the Chiefs whose schedule has been marginally tougher through three games (their opponents are 26-22), but also looks stronger as the season progresses.
Prediction: Succop misses a potential game-tying 23-yard field goal as time expires, Colts get lucky. Chiefs get Luck. IND 24, KC 21
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| Why does this picture already exist? |
You've got the dates! Forget the Packers. Get off the Bills and Lions band-wagons. No one cares about the NFC East. Worrying about this year's Super Bowl is lame. Super Bowl XLIX is where it's at.
