The Definitive Devin Hester Hall of Fame Case

Most Hall-of-Fame discussions don't begin in earnest while a player has only played five and a half years.  Typically, we assume that the type of players who earn Hall of Fame credentials will continue (or rather will have to continue) playing at an elite level for an extended period of time, so there's really no need to discuss it.  Adrian Peterson's HOF status is not worth discussing this early because it's heavily dependent on what he does moving forward, regardless of how great he has already been.

The arguably premature debate of Devin Hester's potential enshrinement is, like his performance on the field, unique.  The reality of his age, position, and skill set is that he is nearing the end of peak as a pro-bowl level player.  The end of his career, however, will most likely not coincide with his decent from Mount Returnicus.  He will probably toil as an average wide receiver/x-back/occassional returner for a handful of years, all of which will become part of the public's collective memory and judgment of his career.

Unlike his peers at other positions, the accumulation of raw stats during seasons of mediocrity won't help his case the way it would for guys like Emmitt Smith, LaDanian Tomlinson, or Terrell Owens.  Emmitt unquestionably would have been elected to the Hall even if he hadn't spent his last four years averaging 3.6 yards/carry and 63 yards/game.  Those four years, however, allowed him to set and fortify the most important records a running back can achieve, all while he was fourth-tier running back on teams that went 20-44 during those years.  Devin Hester can't "pad" his stats by returning punts at five yards per.

For some, the debate is not so much whether Hester is worthy, but whether a special teams player deserves enshrinement period.  We'll certainly address this topic, but before we do, let's make the case for Chicago's number 23, which already boasts Hall of Famers in baseball and basketball . . .


Start with Stats

Some of Hester's records are well-known.  Others not so much.  These a large part of the discussion, and need to be put into the proper perspective.

1. Career Punt Returns - 12.  This is among the most well known, and even more heralded for how quickly he took down the record, tying Eric Metcalf in just five seasons.  But its not from a glut of opportunities.  Hester has only been in the top 7 in punt returns twice in his six seasons - he's actually 21st in number of returns this year.  Apparently some teams actually heed the cliched advice about not kicking to him.  To put in perspective how incredible his twelve career returns are, look at how efficient he has been compared to every other punt returner who even had 5 career returns (Super Bowl era).

	Punt Returns	TD	Returns/TD
Devin Hester	195	12	16.3
Eric Metcalf	351	10	35.1
Brian Mitchell	463	9	51.4
Rick Upchurch	248	8	31.0
Desmond Howard	244	8	30.5
Dave Meggett	349	7	49.9
Darrien Gordon	314	6	52.3
Dante Hall	216	6	36.0
Billy Johnson	282	6	47.0
Jermaine Lewis	295	6	49.2
Deion Sanders	212	6	35.3
Joey Galloway	141	5	28.2
Antwaan Randle El	311	5	62.2
Karl Williams	255	5	51.0

He's nearly twice as efficient as anyone on this list.  If Devin Hester fails to return a punt for a touchdown on his next 143 attempts, he will still have the fewest attempts per touchdown.  One reason that it was hard to continue breaking through for the noteworthy returns on this was the transformation from unknown/rookie into constant threat.  Teams gameplanned for Metcalf, Hall, and Prime Time, just like they do now for Hester.  The other great players saw their attempts per touchdown increase as teams put a greater focus on them.  Incredibly, Hester has returned one of every ten during the last two years, while commentators guffaw in disbelief that he's doing it again.

2. Career Return Touchdowns - 18.  Devin Hester may clear the field by eight or nine touchdowns when it's all said and done.  Considering that the only active player within ten has been in the league longer than Hester, there isn't a whole lot of time to make up ground.  Although, he's a year younger than Hester, Josh Cribbs has actually been in the league one more year.

It's a bit surprising that more isn't made of Cribbs' having the most career kick returns.  Perhaps the record seems readily breakable, with the all-time leaderboard littered with current players.  Maybe he just happened to achieve his success in the shadow of Hester.  Or that Leon Washington could match the mark with a return this weekend.  The list below shows the career leaders in kick/punt return touchdowns, but does not include a returned missed field goals (Hester's the only one on the list with one anyway).

	Return TD	PR	PR TD	KR	KR TD	Kick Returns / Touchdown
Devin Hester	17	195	12	134	5	26.8
Brian Mitchell	13	463	9	607	4	151.8
Dante Hall	12	216	6	426	6	71.0
Eric Metcalf	12	351	10	280	2	140.0
Josh Cribbs	10	146	2	325	8	40.6
Mel J. Gray	9	252	3	421	6	70.2
Deion Sanders	9	212	6	155	3	51.7
Rick Upchurch	8	248	8	95	0	Inf.
Dave Meggett	8	349	7	252	1	252.0
Allen Rossum	8	307	3	514	5	102.8
Desmond Howard	8	244	8	359	0	Inf.
Leon Washington	7	114	0	204	7	29.1

Incredibly, Hester is also the most efficient kick returner on this list as well, narrowly edging Washington, who needs only about 30 return opportunities to take it to the house.  Kick return touchdowns in general occur less often than punt returns (in no small part to the number of punts that are fair-caught and do not count towards return statistics).  It's amazing that some of the best kick returners in NFL history need more than 100 tries to take one all the way back, and a stud like Desmond Howard never did in 359 regular season kickoff returns.  (Of course, he's got a nice shiny Super Bowl MVP thanks to his clutch fourth quarter back-breaker).

When you factor everything in, of all of the greatest returners in NFL history Devin Hester finds the end zone once for every 19 returns.  Out of this Top 12 list, the next best was Hall of Famer Deion Sanders, who took 1 out of 41 back for a score.

3.  Single Season Return Touchdowns - 6 (twice).  As I'm rattling off statistics, the point is not just to cherry pick things that sound good, but rather to demonstrate that Hester is not just a great returner, or even the best returner.  The point is that he is so much better statistically than any returner in history that he is in a category by himself.  Consider the following:

- No one else has ever returned more than four in one season.  Hester has returned six in two separate seasons.

- No one else has ever returned four in two different season in their entire career.

- Only four other players have returned at least three kicks in two seaons (Cribbs, Washington, Hall, Billy Johnson).  Hester has done it four times.

There are other aspects of returning that factor into determining the quality of a returner, but the impact of return touchdowns cannot be overemphasized.  During Hester's time on the Bears, they win 56% of the games where he does not have a return (42-33), while winning 80% of the games with a return (12-3).

The Biggest Impact on the Steroids Era

Intro
There are certain indelible images of the steroids era that will always define this generation of baseball, and to a lesser degree, sports.  McGwire and Sosa bumping forearms at home plate . . .  Clemens trainer with the syringes . . . Palmeiro pointing a condemning finger at congress . . . A fake-baked Canseco relishing every minute of his re-emergence into relevancy, and his subsequently pathetic fall . . .

But no thing and no one has epitomized the era more than Barry Bonds and his gigantic head.  There are a variety of reasons for this, and I intend on diving into those in another piece, but the short answer is that owns the two most prestigious batting records in baseball - the single-season and all-time home run records - that formerly could be identified simply as 61 and 755.  (And yes, I know McGwire broke the single-season record first).

The Runner Up and his Runners Up
Bonds further entrenched himself as the ugly face as steroids because approached and achieved the second record slowly, over a matter of years, which gave critiques and angry fans time to fester and bloat their anger towards him.  I was certainly one of them.  By the time Bonds finally cranked #756 in the stands at AT&T Park, there were death threats and public venom from otherwise sane people.  If the record had fallen anywhere other than the semi-friendly confines of San Francisco, I would not have been surprised to see some lunatic attempt some act of lunacy.

But as much as Bonds impacted the game during the '90s and 2000's, and important as his records truly are, his impact on the era, the records, the post-season, big games, and the way we view other players from his era actually pales in comparison to another man, The Rocket.  Bonds lost one world series and a handful of first-road exits to go with this seven MVP's, two home run titles, and two batting titles.  Here are the years of Bonds' MVP, home run, and batting crown seasons, with the runner-ups in parentheses:

'90 MVP (Bobby Bonilla, didn't deserve to be runner up, should have been Sandberg, who already had one MVP)

'92 MVP (Terry Pendleton, 1 MVP, 5 WS runner ups)

'93 MVP (Lenny Dykstra, not even that good, batted .305, OPS of .902, his 773 plate appearances were the 2nd most all-time.  This is one of the rare critically-praised seasons that wasn't that great with pre- or pos- sabrmetric era stats). 
'93 Home Run (Justice)

'01 MVP (Sosa, fellow 'roidian, 1 MVP)
'01 Home Run (Sosa, two home run titles)

'02 MVP (Pujols)
'02 Batting Crown (Larry Walker, 3 batting titles and one MVP)

'03 MVP (Pujols)

'04 MVP (Beltre, who still won home run title)
'04 Batting Crown (Helton, 1 batting title)

Damage Assessment:
Unphased
First of all, let's eliminate the two guys who came out the squeakiest and cleanest: Ruth and Aaron.  The records seem to have gained more creedance after being broken by a "cheater."  Despite the fact that Bonds obliterated several of the longest standing and loftiest records (home runs, walks, OPS, OBP, etc), The Babe and Hammering Hank are revered in an even more untouchable light.

Minimal Impact
Sosa, Helton, Walker, and Pendleton would only have slightly better resumes if they weren't Bondsed.  Would you really be that impressed if the two Rockies combined for six batting titles instead of four?

Smarting, but no one cares
If Bonilla and Dykstra had MVPs from their above-average runner up seasons, they would merely be at the top of the "Bullshit MVP" list along side Barry Larkin, so there's probably no one outside of Pennsylvania that really cares.  The winner came from Pittsburgh both years anyway.

Legitimate Beef
I suppose Adrian Beltre deserved to be rewarded for his freakishly, flukishly good year.  Even though he was naturally linked to steroids after the performance and subsequent drop off, it was a genuinely impressive performance.

The biggest loser of the Bonds cheatfest, however, is Albert Pujols.  If we could all wave our hands and make Bonds magically disappear (and believe me I've tried), Pujols would be sitting on 5 MVPs.  That's two more than anyone else in Major League history.  It appears as if Albert has begun the slide from immortal stud to solid and somehow underappreciated star.  The likelihood of him winning four more awards to catch Bonds is miniscule, and it's a shame.

The Rockets' Wake
So Bonds really screwed Pujols, and certainly impacted some of the fringe stars of his era.  Could Clemens really have that much more of an impact?  The short answer: yes.  First, let's look at awards:

Awards
'86 MVP (Don Mattingly, 1 MVP)
'86 Cy Young (Teddy Higuera, 20-11, 2.79 ERA; Zero Career CY)

'87 Cy Young (Jimmy Key, 17-8, LL 2.76 ERA, LL 1.057 WHIP; Zero Career CY)

'91 Cy Young (Scott Erickson, LL 20-8, 3.18 ERA; Zero Career CY)

'97 Cy Young (Randy Johnson, 20-4, 2.28 ERA, 1.052 WHIP; 5 Career CY)

'98 Cy Young (Pedro Martinez, 19-7, 2.89 ERA, 251 SO, 1.091 WHIP, 3 Career CY)

'01 Cy Young (Mark Mulder, 21-8, 3.45 ERA, 1.156 WHIP; Zero Career CY)

'04 Cy Young (Randy Johnson, 16-14, 2.60 ERA, LL 0.900 WHIP, LL 290 SO, 5 Career CY)

Damage Assessment:
Legitimate Beef
Took an MVP away from most beloved player on the rival Yankees.  Denied four pitchers (Higuera, Key, Erickson, Mulder) what would have been their lone Cy Youngs.  Unlike Dykstra and Bonilla above, these guys would have been legit winners.

I'll come back to the Pedro's runner up and Randy Johnson's pair of second places later.

Stats:
'86 Wins (Jack Morris, 2 x most wins)
'86 ERA (Higuera, zero ERA title)

'87 Wins (T-Dave Stewart)

'88 Strike Outs (Mark Langston, 3 SO titles)

'90 ERA (Chuck Finley, zero ERA title)

'91 ERA (Tom Candiotti, zero ERA title)
'91 Strike Outs (Randy Johnson, nine SO titles)

'92 ERA (Kevin Appier, 1 ERA title)

'96 Strike Outs (Chuck Finley, zero SO titles)

'97 Wins (Randy Johnson, one time most wins)
'97 ERA (Randy Johnson, 4 ERA titles)
'97 Strike Outs (Randy Johnson, nine SO titles)

'98 Wins (T-David Cone, T-Rick Helling)
'98 ERA (Pedro Martinez, 5 ERA titles)
'98 Strike Outs (Pedro Martinez, three SO titles)

'05 ERA (Andy Pettitte, zero ERA title)

Damage Assessment:
Minimal Impact
Jack Morris, Dave Stewart, Mark Langston and David Cone were all plenty good without these marks, and we wouldn't think of them much differently.  Kevin Appier missed out on a second ERA title, but it would have very minimal influence on what we think of him.  Rick Helling had one fluky above-average year and doesn't deserve any more credit than he's currently receiving: none.

Smarting, but no one cares
Higuera (again), Candiotti, and Andy Pettite missed out on their only career ERA titles by losing to Clemens.  This doesn't drop them from Hall of Fame to the minor leagues, but it's certainly a glaring omission from each of their resumes that they would love to have.

Legitimate Beef
Chuck Finley can only boast a runner up in ERA and runner up in Strike Outs in two separate seasons.  It would have been really nice to add these accolades to his 200 career wins, winning record in 12 out of 13 seasons ('89 to '01), and five all-star selections.

Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez
Much like Pujols, these two aces suffered the most by playing in the same era as a alleged cheater.  The effect on The Big Unit is more severe, but look at the chart below to see the with and without Clemens rankings for these guys:

	Clemens	Johnson	Martinez	Most All Time
Cy Youngs	7	5	3	7 (R. Clemens)
Most Wins	4	1	1	9 (W. Spahn)
Lowest ERA	7	4	5	9 (L. Grove)
Most Strike Outs	5	9	3	12 (W. Johnson)

In this first chart, Clemens is indisputably among the greatest of all-time, ranking near the top of the list of these major pitching categories.  So let's re-write history as if Clemens never existed:

	Clemens	Johnson	Martinez	Most All Time
Cy Youngs	7	7	4	7 (R. Johnson)
Most Wins	4	2	1	9 (W. Spahn)
Lowest ERA	7	5	6	9 (L. Grove)
Most Strike Outs	5	11	4	12 (W. Johnson)

That was fun.  Now Johnson has led the league in ERA the third most times (to Pedro's second), led in strike outs the second most times, and accepted the most Cy Young Awards (Pedro would have the second most).  It changes the context in which we think about these two great pitchers.  Incredibly, the only other truly great pitcher of this era - Greg Maddux - seems to be statistically unaffected by Roger's existence.  Unfortunately, stats aren't Clemens only impact.

Andrew Luck Power Rankings - Week 5

Andy Luck played another solid game on Saturday, leading Stanford to a 45-19 spanking of UCLA, improving the Cardinal to 4-0, and steadily maintaining his name atop the Heisman watch list.  He even managed to add a spectacular catch to his resume.  In short, Luck continues to look extraordinary.  The teams on the list below?  Not so much.  So where will the (latest) Chosen One land? 

Click here to see the games to watch in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Rank	Prev		Team	Record	Comment
1	3		Minnesota	0-4	Minnesota lost to the train wreck known as the Chiefs. With 5 left against the strong NFC North, things are looking down.
2	2		Indianapolis	0-4	Mathis and Freeney are trying to win games by themselves.  Big game vs KC this week.
3	4		Miami	0-4	The bye week got here just in time, but it doesn't get any easier for the 'phins, who have already played a tough schedule.
4	1		Kansas City	1-3	Chiefs are moving in the wrong direction with a win over Vikes.  Critical showdown in Indy is a must-lose for KC.
5	7		St. Louis	0-4	A bye week will keep St. Louis winless before heading to Green Bay to move to 0-5.
6	6		Denver	1-3	Denver is hard to figure out.  Wouldn't be surprised by an upset win or a 30-point loss this week hosting San Diego.
7	5		Seattle	1-3	Seattle's easy schedule could inadvertently vault them from Land of the Luck to playoff contention.
8	8		Arizona	1-3	Arizona is sneaking into the conversation with three straight close losses.  Show down with #1 Minnesota will be critical.  They can't afford W's with this easy schedule.
9	9		Jacksonville	1-3	Blaine Gabert: 32nd in Passer Rating, Yards/ Game, and Comp. Percentage.  Even Tebow sounds pretty good right now.
10	NR		Philadelphia	1-3	Better Luck next year?