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28 October 2011

The Biggest Impact on the Steroids Era

Intro
There are certain indelible images of the steroids era that will always define this generation of baseball, and to a lesser degree, sports.  McGwire and Sosa bumping forearms at home plate . . .  Clemens trainer with the syringes . . . Palmeiro pointing a condemning finger at congress . . . A fake-baked Canseco relishing every minute of his re-emergence into relevancy, and his subsequently pathetic fall . . .

But no thing and no one has epitomized the era more than Barry Bonds and his gigantic head.  There are a variety of reasons for this, and I intend on diving into those in another piece, but the short answer is that owns the two most prestigious batting records in baseball - the single-season and all-time home run records - that formerly could be identified simply as 61 and 755.  (And yes, I know McGwire broke the single-season record first).

The Runner Up and his Runners Up
Bonds further entrenched himself as the ugly face as steroids because approached and achieved the second record slowly, over a matter of years, which gave critiques and angry fans time to fester and bloat their anger towards him.  I was certainly one of them.  By the time Bonds finally cranked #756 in the stands at AT&T Park, there were death threats and public venom from otherwise sane people.  If the record had fallen anywhere other than the semi-friendly confines of San Francisco, I would not have been surprised to see some lunatic attempt some act of lunacy.

But as much as Bonds impacted the game during the '90s and 2000's, and important as his records truly are, his impact on the era, the records, the post-season, big games, and the way we view other players from his era actually pales in comparison to another man, The Rocket.  Bonds lost one world series and a handful of first-road exits to go with this seven MVP's, two home run titles, and two batting titles.  Here are the years of Bonds' MVP, home run, and batting crown seasons, with the runner-ups in parentheses:

'90 MVP (Bobby Bonilla, didn't deserve to be runner up, should have been Sandberg, who already had one MVP)

'92 MVP (Terry Pendleton, 1 MVP, 5 WS runner ups)

'93 MVP (Lenny Dykstra, not even that good, batted .305, OPS of .902, his 773 plate appearances were the 2nd most all-time.  This is one of the rare critically-praised seasons that wasn't that great with pre- or pos- sabrmetric era stats). 
'93 Home Run (Justice)

'01 MVP (Sosa, fellow 'roidian, 1 MVP)
'01 Home Run (Sosa, two home run titles)

'02 MVP (Pujols)
'02 Batting Crown (Larry Walker, 3 batting titles and one MVP)

'03 MVP (Pujols)

'04 MVP (Beltre, who still won home run title)
'04 Batting Crown (Helton, 1 batting title)

Damage Assessment:
Unphased
First of all, let's eliminate the two guys who came out the squeakiest and cleanest: Ruth and Aaron.  The records seem to have gained more creedance after being broken by a "cheater."  Despite the fact that Bonds obliterated several of the longest standing and loftiest records (home runs, walks, OPS, OBP, etc), The Babe and Hammering Hank are revered in an even more untouchable light.

Minimal Impact
Sosa, Helton, Walker, and Pendleton would only have slightly better resumes if they weren't Bondsed.  Would you really be that impressed if the two Rockies combined for six batting titles instead of four?

Smarting, but no one cares
If Bonilla and Dykstra had MVPs from their above-average runner up seasons, they would merely be at the top of the "Bullshit MVP" list along side Barry Larkin, so there's probably no one outside of Pennsylvania that really cares.  The winner came from Pittsburgh both years anyway.

Legitimate Beef
I suppose Adrian Beltre deserved to be rewarded for his freakishly, flukishly good year.  Even though he was naturally linked to steroids after the performance and subsequent drop off, it was a genuinely impressive performance.

The biggest loser of the Bonds cheatfest, however, is Albert Pujols.  If we could all wave our hands and make Bonds magically disappear (and believe me I've tried), Pujols would be sitting on 5 MVPs.  That's two more than anyone else in Major League history.  It appears as if Albert has begun the slide from immortal stud to solid and somehow underappreciated star.  The likelihood of him winning four more awards to catch Bonds is miniscule, and it's a shame.

The Rockets' Wake
So Bonds really screwed Pujols, and certainly impacted some of the fringe stars of his era.  Could Clemens really have that much more of an impact?  The short answer: yes.  First, let's look at awards:

Awards
'86 MVP (Don Mattingly, 1 MVP)
'86 Cy Young (Teddy Higuera, 20-11, 2.79 ERA; Zero Career CY)

'87 Cy Young (Jimmy Key, 17-8, LL 2.76 ERA, LL 1.057 WHIP; Zero Career CY)

'91 Cy Young (Scott Erickson, LL 20-8, 3.18 ERA; Zero Career CY)

'97 Cy Young (Randy Johnson, 20-4, 2.28 ERA, 1.052 WHIP; 5 Career CY)

'98 Cy Young (Pedro Martinez, 19-7, 2.89 ERA, 251 SO, 1.091 WHIP, 3 Career CY)

'01 Cy Young (Mark Mulder, 21-8, 3.45 ERA, 1.156 WHIP; Zero Career CY)

'04 Cy Young (Randy Johnson, 16-14, 2.60 ERA, LL 0.900 WHIP, LL 290 SO, 5 Career CY)

Damage Assessment:
Legitimate Beef
Took an MVP away from most beloved player on the rival Yankees.  Denied four pitchers (Higuera, Key, Erickson, Mulder) what would have been their lone Cy Youngs.  Unlike Dykstra and Bonilla above, these guys would have been legit winners.

I'll come back to the Pedro's runner up and Randy Johnson's pair of second places later.

Stats:
'86 Wins (Jack Morris, 2 x most wins)
'86 ERA (Higuera, zero ERA title)

'87 Wins (T-Dave Stewart)

'88 Strike Outs (Mark Langston, 3 SO titles)

'90 ERA (Chuck Finley, zero ERA title)

'91 ERA (Tom Candiotti, zero ERA title)
'91 Strike Outs (Randy Johnson, nine SO titles)

'92 ERA (Kevin Appier, 1 ERA title)

'96 Strike Outs (Chuck Finley, zero SO titles)

'97 Wins (Randy Johnson, one time most wins)
'97 ERA (Randy Johnson, 4 ERA titles)
'97 Strike Outs (Randy Johnson, nine SO titles)

'98 Wins (T-David Cone, T-Rick Helling)
'98 ERA (Pedro Martinez, 5 ERA titles)
'98 Strike Outs (Pedro Martinez, three SO titles)

'05 ERA (Andy Pettitte, zero ERA title)

Damage Assessment:
Minimal Impact
Jack Morris, Dave Stewart, Mark Langston and David Cone were all plenty good without these marks, and we wouldn't think of them much differently.  Kevin Appier missed out on a second ERA title, but it would have very minimal influence on what we think of him.  Rick Helling had one fluky above-average year and doesn't deserve any more credit than he's currently receiving: none.

Smarting, but no one cares
Higuera (again), Candiotti, and Andy Pettite missed out on their only career ERA titles by losing to Clemens.  This doesn't drop them from Hall of Fame to the minor leagues, but it's certainly a glaring omission from each of their resumes that they would love to have.

Legitimate Beef
Chuck Finley can only boast a runner up in ERA and runner up in Strike Outs in two separate seasons.  It would have been really nice to add these accolades to his 200 career wins, winning record in 12 out of 13 seasons ('89 to '01), and five all-star selections.

Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez
Much like Pujols, these two aces suffered the most by playing in the same era as a alleged cheater.  The effect on The Big Unit is more severe, but look at the chart below to see the with and without Clemens rankings for these guys:




Clemens
Johnson
Martinez
Most All Time
Cy Youngs
7
5
3
7 (R. Clemens)
Most Wins
4
1
1
9 (W. Spahn)
Lowest ERA
7
4
5
9 (L. Grove)
Most Strike Outs
5
9
3
12 (W. Johnson)


In this first chart, Clemens is indisputably among the greatest of all-time, ranking near the top of the list of these major pitching categories.  So let's re-write history as if Clemens never existed:



Clemens
Johnson
Martinez
Most All Time
Cy Youngs
7
7
4
7 (R. Johnson)
Most Wins
4
2
1
9 (W. Spahn)
Lowest ERA
7
5
6
9 (L. Grove)
Most Strike Outs
5
11
4
12 (W. Johnson)


That was fun.  Now Johnson has led the league in ERA the third most times (to Pedro's second), led in strike outs the second most times, and accepted the most Cy Young Awards (Pedro would have the second most).  It changes the context in which we think about these two great pitchers.  Incredibly, the only other truly great pitcher of this era - Greg Maddux - seems to be statistically unaffected by Roger's existence.  Unfortunately, stats aren't Clemens only impact.

05 October 2011

Andrew Luck Power Rankings - Week 5

Andy Luck played another solid game on Saturday, leading Stanford to a 45-19 spanking of UCLA, improving the Cardinal to 4-0, and steadily maintaining his name atop the Heisman watch list.  He even managed to add a spectacular catch to his resume.  In short, Luck continues to look extraordinary.  The teams on the list below?  Not so much.  So where will the (latest) Chosen One land? 

Click here to see the games to watch in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.


Rank
Prev
           

Team
Record
Comment
1
3
Minnesota
0-4
Minnesota lost to the train wreck known as the Chiefs. With 5 left against the strong NFC North, things are looking down.
2
2
Indianapolis
0-4
Mathis and Freeney are trying to win games by themselves.  Big game vs KC this week.
3
4
Miami
0-4
The bye week got here just in time, but it doesn't get any easier for the 'phins, who have already played a tough schedule.
4
1
Kansas City
1-3
Chiefs are moving in the wrong direction with a win over Vikes.  Critical showdown in Indy is a must-lose for KC.
5
7
St. Louis
0-4
A bye week will keep St. Louis winless before heading to Green Bay to move to 0-5.
6
6
Denver
1-3
Denver is hard to figure out.  Wouldn't be surprised by an upset win or a 30-point loss this week hosting San Diego.
7
5
 
Seattle
1-3
Seattle's easy schedule could inadvertently vault them from Land of the Luck to playoff contention.
8
8
Arizona
1-3
Arizona is sneaking into the conversation with three straight close losses.  Show down with #1 Minnesota will be critical.  They can't afford W's with this easy schedule.
9
9
Jacksonville
1-3
Blaine Gabert: 32nd in Passer Rating, Yards/ Game, and Comp. Percentage.  Even Tebow sounds pretty good right now.
10
NR
Philadelphia
1-3
Better Luck next year?