The arguably premature debate of Devin Hester's potential enshrinement is, like his performance on the field, unique. The reality of his age, position, and skill set is that he is nearing the end of peak as a pro-bowl level player. The end of his career, however, will most likely not coincide with his decent from Mount Returnicus. He will probably toil as an average wide receiver/x-back/occassional returner for a handful of years, all of which will become part of the public's collective memory and judgment of his career.
Unlike his peers at other positions, the accumulation of raw stats during seasons of mediocrity won't help his case the way it would for guys like Emmitt Smith, LaDanian Tomlinson, or Terrell Owens. Emmitt unquestionably would have been elected to the Hall even if he hadn't spent his last four years averaging 3.6 yards/carry and 63 yards/game. Those four years, however, allowed him to set and fortify the most important records a running back can achieve, all while he was fourth-tier running back on teams that went 20-44 during those years. Devin Hester can't "pad" his stats by returning punts at five yards per.
For some, the debate is not so much whether Hester is worthy, but whether a special teams player deserves enshrinement period. We'll certainly address this topic, but before we do, let's make the case for Chicago's number 23, which already boasts Hall of Famers in baseball and basketball . . .
Start with Stats
Some of Hester's records are well-known. Others not so much. These a large part of the discussion, and need to be put into the proper perspective.
1. Career Punt Returns - 12. This is among the most well known, and even more heralded for how quickly he took down the record, tying Eric Metcalf in just five seasons. But its not from a glut of opportunities. Hester has only been in the top 7 in punt returns twice in his six seasons - he's actually 21st in number of returns this year. Apparently some teams actually heed the cliched advice about not kicking to him. To put in perspective how incredible his twelve career returns are, look at how efficient he has been compared to every other punt returner who even had 5 career returns (Super Bowl era).
Punt Returns | TD | Returns/TD | |
Devin Hester | 195 | 12 | 16.3 |
Eric Metcalf | 351 | 10 | 35.1 |
Brian Mitchell | 463 | 9 | 51.4 |
Rick Upchurch | 248 | 8 | 31.0 |
Desmond Howard | 244 | 8 | 30.5 |
Dave Meggett | 349 | 7 | 49.9 |
Darrien Gordon | 314 | 6 | 52.3 |
Dante Hall | 216 | 6 | 36.0 |
Billy Johnson | 282 | 6 | 47.0 |
Jermaine Lewis | 295 | 6 | 49.2 |
Deion Sanders | 212 | 6 | 35.3 |
Joey Galloway | 141 | 5 | 28.2 |
Antwaan Randle El | 311 | 5 | 62.2 |
Karl Williams | 255 | 5 | 51.0 |
He's nearly twice as efficient as anyone on this list. If Devin Hester fails to return a punt for a touchdown on his next 143 attempts, he will still have the fewest attempts per touchdown. One reason that it was hard to continue breaking through for the noteworthy returns on this was the transformation from unknown/rookie into constant threat. Teams gameplanned for Metcalf, Hall, and Prime Time, just like they do now for Hester. The other great players saw their attempts per touchdown increase as teams put a greater focus on them. Incredibly, Hester has returned one of every ten during the last two years, while commentators guffaw in disbelief that he's doing it again.
2. Career Return Touchdowns - 18. Devin Hester may clear the field by eight or nine touchdowns when it's all said and done. Considering that the only active player within ten has been in the league longer than Hester, there isn't a whole lot of time to make up ground. Although, he's a year younger than Hester, Josh Cribbs has actually been in the league one more year.
It's a bit surprising that more isn't made of Cribbs' having the most career kick returns. Perhaps the record seems readily breakable, with the all-time leaderboard littered with current players. Maybe he just happened to achieve his success in the shadow of Hester. Or that Leon Washington could match the mark with a return this weekend. The list below shows the career leaders in kick/punt return touchdowns, but does not include a returned missed field goals (Hester's the only one on the list with one anyway).
Return TD | PR | PR TD | KR | KR TD | Kick Returns / Touchdown | |
Devin Hester | 17 | 195 | 12 | 134 | 5 | 26.8 |
13 | 463 | 9 | 607 | 4 | 151.8 | |
12 | 216 | 6 | 426 | 6 | 71.0 | |
12 | 351 | 10 | 280 | 2 | 140.0 | |
Josh Cribbs | 10 | 146 | 2 | 325 | 8 | 40.6 |
9 | 252 | 3 | 421 | 6 | 70.2 | |
Deion Sanders | 9 | 212 | 6 | 155 | 3 | 51.7 |
Rick Upchurch | 8 | 248 | 8 | 95 | 0 | Inf. |
Dave Meggett | 8 | 349 | 7 | 252 | 1 | 252.0 |
8 | 307 | 3 | 514 | 5 | 102.8 | |
Desmond Howard | 8 | 244 | 8 | 359 | 0 | Inf. |
Leon Washington | 7 | 114 | 0 | 204 | 7 | 29.1 |
Incredibly, Hester is also the most efficient kick returner on this list as well, narrowly edging Washington, who needs only about 30 return opportunities to take it to the house. Kick return touchdowns in general occur less often than punt returns (in no small part to the number of punts that are fair-caught and do not count towards return statistics). It's amazing that some of the best kick returners in NFL history need more than 100 tries to take one all the way back, and a stud like Desmond Howard never did in 359 regular season kickoff returns. (Of course, he's got a nice shiny Super Bowl MVP thanks to his clutch fourth quarter back-breaker).
When you factor everything in, of all of the greatest returners in NFL history Devin Hester finds the end zone once for every 19 returns. Out of this Top 12 list, the next best was Hall of Famer Deion Sanders, who took 1 out of 41 back for a score.
3. Single Season Return Touchdowns - 6 (twice). As I'm rattling off statistics, the point is not just to cherry pick things that sound good, but rather to demonstrate that Hester is not just a great returner, or even the best returner. The point is that he is so much better statistically than any returner in history that he is in a category by himself. Consider the following:
- No one else has ever returned more than four in one season. Hester has returned six in two separate seasons.
- No one else has ever returned four in two different season in their entire career.
- Only four other players have returned at least three kicks in two seaons (Cribbs, Washington, Hall, Billy Johnson). Hester has done it four times.
There are other aspects of returning that factor into determining the quality of a returner, but the impact of return touchdowns cannot be overemphasized. During Hester's time on the Bears, they win 56% of the games where he does not have a return (42-33), while winning 80% of the games with a return (12-3).
