The Year of the Carlos

By the way, that title is meant to be read by Antonio Banderas.  If 2010 was the year of the pitcher (MLB), year of the quarterback (really, a Tebow reality show), and year of the free agent (Decision/Melodrama), then 2011 is unquestionably the Year of the Carlos.  At least in Chicago.

As absurd as this sounds, Carloses will have a significant impact on three Chicago sports teams this year, so let's have fun with the mighty Carlos by the numbers:

8   The number of consecutive wins by Carlos Silva to start the season last year.  The best start to season by a Cub since 1967.  While he certainly waned as the season went on, he did provide five straight quality starts after starting 8-0 (he was 1-2 during that stretch).  He may not be ace material, but as a fifth starter, you have to feel good about Silva's potential.  Also, eight is the number of dugout fights Silva needs to start to catch Zambrano.

Hitting home runs gives
Carlos the munchies.

36   Home runs by White Sox slugger Carlos Quentin during the odd-ball, "post-steroids" 2008 season.  36 dingers were enough for second in the American League that year to Miguel Cabrera's 37.  There had not been a Home Run "King" with so few homers since good-old Fred McGriff led the NL with 35 in 1992, and a guy named Fred McGriff led the AL with 36 in 1989.  Sorry, Fred.  At least we know AlFredo was getting it done before juicing became so prevelant.  Now, Quentin doesn't need any 'roids to help a solid Sox lineup, but he could afford to lay off the injuries.  Missing 94 games over the last two years has not done him any favors. 

30   Holds for Carlos Marmol in 2008.  Those 30 holds were in set up for unselfish starter-turned-closer Kerry Wood.  The duo was justifiably praised during the Cubs' 97-win 2008 season.  Will it work with the roles reversed?  Let's hope so.  Chicago's bullpen was a pathetic 29th out of 30 in E.R.A. (starters were 12th of 30), with a horrible losing record (15-27), and a ton of blown saves.  Even those stats are deceiving, because they were actually more distorted in the first half of the season.  Marmol should be in a better situation with Wood leading in.  Let's face it, he can't be much worse than Grabow, Cashner, and Samardzija.  At least Howry is formally being paid by another team to make the Cubs lose games.


Can Samardzija, Wood, and Marmol be the 7th-8th-9th combination that Chicago is looking for?  (picture from SI).

 .756   The Bulls winning percentage during their last championship season of '97-'98.  It's also Chicago's win percentage with Carlos Boozer in the line up, compared to "just" .667 with him out.  With Boozer in the line up, Chicago has beaten San Antonio, L.A., Dallas, Boston, Orlando (twice), and Miami (thrice).  So basically, anyone they will be playing beyond the first round in the playoffs.  He hasn't exactly lit the world on fire during those big games, but maybe being the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th banana is what he's meant to be anyway.  Even at Duke, he was the 3rd best player on his own team.  His attitude has been excellent since joining Chicago, giving credit to Noah, Deng, and especially Rose.  The obvious question will be whether he is healthy enough to play this post-season, but that in itself is a major way he can impact the Bulls' season.

1   For Carlos Pena, this could be a number of things.  One All-Star appearance.  One Silver Slugger.  One Gold Glove.  One Home Run title.  One-time Fielding Percentage league leader.  The good news?  They aren't all during one great season.  So the potential for Pena to put it all together is exciting.  The bad news?  Well, there's been enough said about the depressing downward trend of the batting average into crapper.  Aside from Zambrano, Pena's potential has the greatest range between horrific failure and overachieving success.

35   Career home runs for Carlos Lee against the Cubs.  Look, Lee is a solid and consistent player . . . but against the Cubs he is Albert Fucking Pujols.  No, really.  Here's Carlos Lee vs the Cubs compared to Albert Pujols' MVP runner-up 2002 season (Lee's are adjusted to 162 games from 125):

                       Hits    Doubles   Home Runs    RBI    AVG    Slug    OPS
 Lee vs Cubs   185         36              45           123    .294     .568   .916            
 Pujols 2002    185         40              34           127    .314     .561   .955

      Lee has never finished in the top 16 in MVP voting and only has one playoff appearance.  For some reason, though, he always seems to lay it on Chicago.  I have a feeling he's turning down larger contract offers just so he play the Cubs and Pirates 36 times a year.  The Astros are not a serious threat to the Cubs this year, but Carlos Lee could definitely steal a few W's along the way. 

7   Including Lee and the four Cubs on this list, there are seven Carlos just in the NL Central.  The Reds' Carlos Fisher and the Brewers' Carlos Carlos Gómez complete the crew.  The AL Central has Quentin, Tiger Carlos Guillen, and Indians Carlos Carrasco and Carlos Santana.  That's 11 of the 17 MLB Carloses between the two central divisions.  Ironically, none of these eleven include the best Carlos (Rockies' González) or the 2005 NLCS hero Carlos Beltán.  Okay, let's wrap this up . . .

8   Consecutive seasons with at least 9 wins and a winning record for Carlos Zambrano.  If there are two words that describe Big Z, they are reliable and consistent.  Okay, maybe not.  And this stat is a little bit obscure, but let's put it into perspective:

                          Most Consecutive Seasons with 9 Wins and Winning Record
                                10     CC Sabathia                Cy Young - 2007
                                 8      Carlos Zambrano
                                 8      Johan Santana             Cy Young - 2004, 2006
                                 7      John Lackey                Cy Young (3rd) - 2007
                                 6      Roy Halladay               Cy Young - 2003

      Nice company.  Zambrano has been a lightning rod for the city of Chicago over this span.  His flashes of brilliance conflict with his immaturity.  His dominant five-game win streaks seem as likely as a five-run shallacking in the second inning.  Three top five finishes in the Cy Young voting don't replace the lack of a defining post-season performance ('07 was not his fault).

      Zambrano is not going to get any pre-season Cy Young love this year like he has in the past.  But just when we had written him off after another meltdown last year, he finished the season off looking as good as, well, ever.  As hopelessly optimistic Cub fans, we can only hope he can keep it under control.  Perhaps Big Z can take a lesson from the great Carlos Santana, "I knuckle down with my demons, and with my weakness."  Knuckle down, Z.

The Most Underrated Chicago Bear

2010's biggest overachievers were loaded with pro-bowl calliber names who certainly came up big throughout the year.  Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher both received Defensive Player of the Year votes.  Devin Hester continued to launch himself into uncharted territory as the greatest return man in NFL history.  Lance Briggs tacked on another Pro Bowl appearance in a quietly solid career.

The offense certainly improved from the previous year, but even with a marked increase from the likes of Cutler, Forte, and Knox, these guys didn't exactly blow anyone's socks off.  If anything, these guys are, um, appropriately rated.


Idonije got kudos for making quarterbacks fall down

Surprisingly, though, there are still a few names on the Bears' terrific 2010 defense that didn't launch into the same stratosphere as the usual suspects above.  As late as the bye week, it probably should have been Israel Idonije, but as the Chicago defense rose the top of the league, his name arose with it.  The Peppers-Idonije tandem became as inseparable as a one-liner describing the Bears' success as it was an on-field nightmare for (third-string) Quarterbacks.  Thanks to the grass-stained pants of Jimmy Clausen and Tyler Thigpen, Idonije got his due.

With the majority of the team now eliminated, the man who seems to continuously exceed expectations and certainly credit is Charles Tillman.  The veteran cornerback continues to be a playmaker for this Bears team without ever being mentioned among the cornerstones of the team. 

To be fair, he is surrounded by a human-youtube-clip returner, a polarizing quarterback, a superhuman pass rusher, and the latest in a line of iconic Bears linebackers.  But while he doesn't get much off-field press, he seems to be ever present on the field.  At some point, it's not a coincident that he's the one that nabs a tipped pass, scoops a fumble, or punches the ball out after a 27-yard gain.

It was incredibly easy to find a picture of these four Pro Bowl studs

During the Bears' hilariously fortunate 2005 season, Tillman took an overtime pick to the house to end the Lions game.  His 2006 fumble return for a touchdown led to a comeback win and classic Dennis Green meltdown.  His Super Bowl fumble recovery halted a Colts drive, killed their momentum, and helped keep things close until, ya know, Grossman tossed the (WORST) interception (OF ALL TIME).  And in 2010, his goal-line interception kept the Lions game close so they could "win" it at the end.

None of these moments evokes legendary status.  And none of his individual seasons scream Pro Bowl.  However, his ever lurking presense becomes more apparent through a couple of stats:

Tillman is tenth in interceptions since 2003.  During a period that includes three NFC North titles, Tillman led the team and was among the league leaders.  Who was ahead of him during that time? 

Interceptions since 2003
49 Ed Reed (2004 DPOY)
42 Asante Samuel (4 straight pro bowls)
36 Darren Sharper (6th all-time interceptions)
35 Charles Woodson (2009 DPOY)
32 Champ Bailey (2006 DPOY runner up)
32 DeAngelo Hall
29 Rashean Mathis
28 Terence Newman
27 Troy Polamalu (2010 DPOY)
27 Charles Tillman

Pretty lofty company.  Of course, Tillman never had one season to get him into the Pro Bowl, let alone the Defensive Player of the Year discussion.  What he does have is consistency.  He's played at least 14 games in every season other than 2004, and it all seven of those seasons, he managed to produce between 6 and 9 turnovers.  Not eye poping, but consistent.  Now take at the same list taking into account interceptions and forced fumbles.

Turnovers forced since 2003
59 Ed Reed
52 Charles Woodson
52 Charles Tillman
47 Asante Samuel
43 Darren Sharper
37 Champ Bailey
37 DeAngelo Hall
37 Brian Dawkins
36 Robert Mathis
35 Rashean Mathis
35 Terence Newman
35 Troy Polamalu
35 Julius Peppers
33 Jason Taylor
32 Dwight Freeney
28 Brian Urlacher

Only two former Defensive Players of the Year have forced as many possesion changes than Tillman.  Considering the massive impact that turnovers have, this list may be more important to winning than many of the other simple metrics of success.  Half of the players on this list have played in the Super Bowl.  The Bears on this list are part of a Lovie Smith crew that has produced the most turnovers in the NFL over the last six years.  During that span, the Bears have gone 58-38, earned three first-round playoff byes, and a trip to the Super Bowl with Orton . . . Griese . . . Grossman . . . Matthews . . . Collins . . . Cutler.  My head hurts.

The legendary comeback in Arizona is the defining game of the 2000's Bears.  Offensive ineptitude overcome by relentless D and special teams.  The indelible scenes from that game remain the unfathomable Hester return and Urlacher assaulting Edgerrin James to free the ball.  And while those two Pro Bowlers certainly deserve their credit, it's just not a coincidence that Charles Tillman happened to be there when the ball bounced free.